Tropical cyclones (TCs) produce multiple hazards: extreme winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall. Recent disasters (e.g., Typhoon Haiyan; Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina) have underscored the significant vulnerability of the U.S. and the world to landfalling TCs. Future TC impacts may worsen because of potentially increasing TC activity due to climate change in conjunction with sea level rise and rapid coastal development. Major advances in TC risk management are called for. Effective TC risk management should be based on probabilistic risk assessment given uncertainties in future climates, TC activity, sea level rise, exposure, and vulnerability. Climate-variant TC risk assessment, which cannot rely solely on direct statistical analysis of the (very limited) historical records, requires physically-based methods. We take a holistic approach to study TC climatology, TC hazards, and TC damage in a physically-based probabilistic risk assessment framework, in support of advanced TC risk management (e.g., engineering design, building code, flood map, zoning, insurance, and cost-benefit analysis and optimization). Developed methodologies will be applied to study other natural hazards.

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